Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
