Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
